The drift rate of the Hecke automaton at conductor 163

Paper VII in the singular Hecke node series
Richard Hoekstra · 2026

The gate table

Let E/Q be the elliptic curve 163a1 (y² + y = x³ − 2x + 1) and f = Σ anqn its weight-2 newform. The six small Hecke operators have eigenvalues a₃ = 0, a₇ = 2, a₁₁ = −6, a₁₉ = −6, a₄₃ = 7, a₆₇ = −2. Their gate types on the 3-adic formal-group quotient are:

papv₃(ap)u₃(ap) mod 3Type
30----Annihilator
7202Swap
11−611Shift (+1)
19−611Shift (+1)
43701Identity
67−201Identity

The transition rule on a unit state (r, k) in F₃x x Z≥0 under a non-annihilator gate Tp is:

(r, k) ↦ (u₃(ap) · r mod 3, k + v₃(ap))

The shell coordinate k is a deterministic counter, additively driven by v₃(ap) of the applied gates.

Derivation of μ = 2/5

Let X₁, X₂, ... be i.i.d. uniform on the five non-annihilator gates Σ* = {T₇, T₁₁, T₁₉, T₄₃, T₆₇}. Define ξi = v₃(ap(Xi)) in {0, 1}. Reading off the gate table: exactly two of the five gates have v₃(ap) = 1 (namely T₁₁ and T₁₉), the remaining three have v₃(ap) = 0. So each ξi is Bernoulli(2/5).

More generally, for any finite gate set S* of non-annihilator primes:

μ(S) = (1/|S*|) Σp in S* v₃(ap)

For E = 163a1: |S*| = 5 and Σv₃ = 0 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 = 2, giving μ = 2/5. The multiset {v₃(ap)} = {0, 1, 1, 0, 0} determines everything.

The three results

Drift theorem For every initial state (r₀, k₀) and every n ≥ 1:
E[Kn − k₀] = 2n/5,   Var[Kn − k₀] = n · (2/5) · (3/5) = 6n/25
The rate μ = 2/5 is independent of the state and of the residue coordinate.

Proof. By the Bernoulli lemma, ξ₁, ..., ξn are i.i.d. Bin(1, 2/5). Independence of state follows because the increment ξi depends only on the gate Xi, not on (ri−1, ki−1). Linearity of expectation gives E[Kn − k₀] = n · (2/5), and independence gives Var = n · (2/5)(3/5) = 6n/25.

Exact law After n gates, the increment Kn − K₀ ~ Bin(n, 2/5). The moment generating function is E[etKn] = etk₀(3/5 + (2/5)et)n.
Concentration (Hoeffding) For every ε > 0 and every n ≥ 1:
Pr[|Kn − K₀ − 2n/5| ≥ εn] ≤ 2 exp(−2nε²)
Equivalently, Kn/n → 2/5 a.s. exponentially fast.
CLT
(Kn − k₀ − 2n/5) / sqrt(6n/25) → N(0,1) in distribution

Weighted variant

Under sampling proportional to ap² on S* = {7, 11, 19, 43, 67}, with weights {4, 36, 36, 49, 4} summing to 129 = 3 · 43:

μw = (4·0 + 36·1 + 36·1 + 49·0 + 4·0) / 129 = 72/129 = 24/43

The two natural drift rates are μunif = 2/5 and μ = 24/43, with ratio 60/43.

Connection to the companion automaton paper

The automaton A₁₆₃ was defined and studied in the companion paper on the Hecke automaton at conductor 163. The shell coordinate k is a deterministic counter on each trajectory, additively driven by v₃(ap) — this paper extracts the probabilistic consequences. The trace Gram matrix G(d, d') = Tr(TdTd' | S₂(Γ₀(163))) satisfies |G(d, d')| ≤ 2 min(G(d,d), G(d',d')), but no closed-form link between the drift rate μ = 2/5 and the trace constants is proved or conjectured. The drift is a property of the formal-group automaton; the trace inequality is a property of S₂(Γ₀(163)).

The drift is a pure consequence of the eigenvalue table. No dynamics, no simulation — just counting how many gates shift the shell coordinate.
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